Unknown

The Turkey & The Fallacy ~ by Nassim Taleb

(Artwork by: Craig Tracy)

A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.”

The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be a turkey.

So, with the butcher surprising it, the turkey will have a revision of belief—right when its confidence in the statement that the butcher loves turkeys is maximal.

What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that 'little less' that may make all the difference.

The key here is such a surprise will be a Black Swan event; but just for the turkey, not for the butcher.

We can see from the turkey story the mother of all harmful mistakes: mistaking absence of evidence (of harm) for evidence of absence, a mistake that tends to prevail in intellectual circles.

Not being a turkey starts with figuring out the difference between true and manufactured stability.

Unknown

About Unknown -

My name is Todd William and I’m an indie author. I like to focus on the positives in life. I’m like kryptonite for cynics. I’m a dedicated father and husband, a science and tech buff, a psychology enthusiast, chess and MMA fanatic, and noble introvert. My biggest fault might just be that I’m annoyingly happy all the time.

I’m addicted to books. I read constantly on a variety of topics, the result being that I tend to know a little about a lot of things yet not a whole lot about any one thing. I lay no claim to superior wisdom. I merely have an unyielding appetite for knowledge coupled with a strong desire to contemplate intriguing thoughts.